Over the last decade plus, the NFC South crown has been determined by streaks. From 2013 to 2015, Cam Newton led the Panthers to three straight division titles (and a Super Bowl). From 2017 to 2020, Drew Brees willed the Saints to four straight titles in the twilight of his career. Shifting again, over the last four years a combination of Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield have led the Bucs to a four-year streak of their own. However, the difference between the Bucs’ run and those of the Panthers and Saints is that, for the past few years, the margin of victory has been significantly slimmer. In other words, the Bucs have not been the dominant team that has traditionally (at least in recent history) captured the NFC South. While these tight division races indicate a winning culture in Tampa Bay, they also reveal a division up for grabs. The Bucs are not a dominant force in the division, and a coup d'état for the crown is plausible, if not likely. With a regime change a serious possibility, let's examine each team’s chances to win the division and start their own reign. To evaluate the four teams in the NFC South, the obvious litmus test is: How close are they to winning a Super Bowl? Asking this question regarding the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers splits these four teams into two distinct categories.

 

VENTURING

 

Both the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons are venturing. In verb form, the Oxford Dictionary defines this word as “daring to do something or go somewhere that may be considered dangerous or unpleasant.” The Falcons and Panthers both fit into this category because each is moving forward with question marks at the head coaching and quarterback position. The Atlanta Falcons ushered in a new era of football with the signing of Raheem Morris and the drafting of Michael Penix Jr. at 8th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. After the short-lived starting tenure of Kirk Cousins, who was then moved into a backup position, the Falcons organization looked ahead toward the future. With Cousins, the Falcons had stability, strong statistics, and locker room presence. With Cousins, the team had experience and confidence, the basic measures for maintaining respect as a franchise. In these regards, he was a “sure thing.” He was always going to be a great locker room leader and team player, but he was also never going to lead them to the Super Bowl. Guys like Cousins are known commodities, and after his years in the league and his stint as the Falcons’ starter, it’s clear he doesn’t have “it.”

 

This knowledge does not always, or even frequently, prompt a team to move on from this type of player. Many times, teams are content with sticking with a player that is sure to bring moderate success and a respectable face to their franchise – but at the cost of never achieving ultimate success. It takes guts to throw away this certainty on the prayer of an unknown. Instead of the stability that Cousins would bring, the Falcons decided to draft, and eventually start, Penix Jr. By making this decision (drafting Penix Jr.) and by standing by it (choosing to start him), the Falcons are committing to the reality of either finding success or suffering defeat and humiliation. The Panthers are in the same boat. They are riding it out with a totally unproven duo of QB Bryce Young and HC Dave Canales. Despite a total of seven wins in two years, the Panthers are choosing to look at the bright spots. They are deciding to look at the growth shown by their first-overall and Heisman Trophy–winning QB Bryce Young in the waning weeks of the 2024–25 season. The Panthers look to Canales as the man who can be credited for Young’s growth and have hope that Canales can continue to help Young reclaim the play style and swagger that made him so successful in college at Alabama.

The success of Young and Canales is anything but certain. Despite this, the Panthers are going all in on the duo. Drafting Tetairoa McMillian eighth overall made it crystal clear that they are taking their shot with Young and Canales. They believe this can be a winning foundation, and they are doing what they can to help them along the way (in the form of receiver help). Like the Falcons, the Panthers will either be certain of success or will be certain of failure. For both of these teams, there is no option of purgatory. Both teams have been extremely bold in making this decision to commit to change and to commit to results. Either good or bad, nothing will be left to guesswork. Both squads are venturing into the future, understanding the risks while also believing in the possibility of success.

 

STAGNANT

 

While the Falcons and Panthers are taking a leap of faith with their squads, the Buccaneers and the Saints are remaining stagnant. In 2024, the Bucs’ defense dropped slightly in production from the year before. There were still many bright spots for the defense: dominating the Giants and allowing only seven points, keeping the Lions under twenty points in Week 2, and the individual efforts of players such as LB Lavonte David and DL Calijah Kancey. On the other hand, the Bucs had it all come together offensively. OC Liam Cohen was able to extract the best out of QB Baker Mayfield, who threw for 4,500 yards and 41 TDs – the best year of his career. Fourth-round pick Bucky Irving surprised with his dominant rookie campaign, rushing for over one thousand yards and scoring eight TDs. Mike Evans proved, once again, that age can’t stop him from being effective (over one thousand yards in 2024). All these factors coming together at the right time helped the Buccaneers to be ranked the third-best offense in the NFL.

 

Despite the offense firing on all cylinders and the team seemingly getting the most out of each of their contributors on offense, the Bucs couldn’t win a playoff game. As far as the offense goes, it feels like they have reached their max potential—which has been shown not to be enough to win at the ultimate level. Although the defense wasn’t nearly as successful as the offense, it feels like, with the group of players currently, they have done all that they could. This happens all the time. Teams realize that the group of players they have is not enough to make a championship run. So they adjust. They change leadership or core players to make a new-look team that may find more success.

 

The Bucs drafted several top prospects, including WR Emeka Egbuka (19th overall) and CB Jacob Parrish (84th overall). Todd Bowles is an excellent coach and his scheme can have success if given the proper players to execute. Parrish and FA addition LB Haason Reddick are such players that can boost Bowles’s defense. Despite these additions, the problem is still this: how much more successful can the Bucs be on offense? It is not realistic to expect an improvement over Mayfield’s insane stat line in 2024, even with the addition of a talented young WR. This is where I see the Bucs stagnating. Their season ended early last year because instead of getting a red-zone first down, Mayfield and the Bucs were stopped on third and one. The team kicked a field goal to tie the score 20–20 instead of taking the lead with less than five minutes to go in the game (lost 23–20 vs. Washington). The Bucs did not make any core changes to lead to an effective reform on offense. Without this, the best the team can do is replicate their success from last year.

 

The Saints are, similarly, taking no steps forward to try and create their team of the future. It seems unlikely that any of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, or Jake Haener can be the QB of the future for the Saints. Kellen Moore is put in a tight spot in his first year as Saints HC with no legitimate talent to work with at the core of his offense (and the core of his team). While some may hope that Moore can turn Shough into a starting-level QB or perhaps help Rattler achieve some of the expectations that he had in high school, it is much more likely that this is a down year for the Saints in which they hold out to pick their franchise QB in 2026. Since Drew Brees’ retirement, the Saints have not had any legitimate aspirations to win at the ultimate level. The Derek Carr experiment did not work out, and now they are playing the waiting game to start the clock on their “championship window.” They hope that Kellen Moore can be their guy, and now it will come down to getting the quarterback and other core pieces that make a team a “championship team.” This year, 2025, will be a strategic rebuilding year to help solidify a better position when it comes to acquiring these core pieces.

 

The Panthers and the Falcons both pose a legitimate threat to win the division, as they are the two teams that are trending upwards. Both teams are in the process of seeing what their talent is really worth and building around the hope that their core pieces can be enough to have success. The Bucs are also a real threat to win the South. While they will be stagnant this year, they are stagnant at the top of the division and after a successful season. It is very possible that they experience the same level of success as 2024 and repeat as NFC South victors. The team that has the bleakest outlook in 2025 is the Saints. While the Bucs are stagnating at the top of the division, the Saints are stagnating at the bottom of it. And like the Bucs, it feels unlikely that they will surpass the amount of success that they found in 2024. Look to the Bucs as the likely winners of the South in 2025, but don’t count out the young Panthers or Falcons.