After the conclusion of the 2026 NFL draft, less than two weeks ago, a total of ten QBs had been selected to make the jump from college to the pros. As with any position, there is great variation in the success of young talent at the QB spot, regardless of the spot that they were selected in. The past few years have been no exception. We have seen players selected in the top few picks fail epically in meeting the high expectations placed upon them (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Anthony Richardson). We have also seen day three selections with no expectations come out of nowhere and shock the world (Brock Purdy). This gaping chasm that exists between expectations and reality proves a couple of things. One, ‘experts’ really don’t have any idea what they are talking about. They undoubtedly have the best insight out of anybody out there, but nobody can really know what a player is capable of before he has a chance to prove it. Two, much goes into a player's success that is completely out of the player’s hands. In other words, a player with the potential to be great could be stuck in a bad situation and never have a chance to realize his potential. It could also mean that a player without a whole lot of upside could be placed in the ideal system and enjoy a lot of success. Because there is not much speculation I can do about the validity of ‘expert’ opinions on these players (afterall, they are the ‘experts’), I have chosen to focus on the individual situations of these QBs to attempt to bridge the gap between what each players draft stock tells us about them and how these players will actually perform. 

 

FERNANDO MENDOZA (Indiana)- 1st Overall, Las Vegas Raiders

 

Grade: A

 

As the reigning Heisman Award winner and starting quarterback for the undefeated and 2026 national champion Indiana Hoosiers, Fernando Mendoza was the obvious choice at number one overall. With elite accuracy, processing, and composure under pressure, Mendoza was the most NFL-ready QB in this draft class. But despite already being ‘NFL-ready”, Mendoza will start his pro career on the bench. Kirk Cousins was brought in to Las Vegas in early April to serve as a bridge/mentor. This will be huge for Mendoza’s development as he will have a chance to learn from a player who has been a starter for over a decade. Cousins is known as a student of the game and, in his couple of stops, has been like a coach on the field. Cousins is as good as any to be a mentor for the young Mendoza. Newly hired HC Klint Kubiak is also a huge part of the equation. Having just won a Super Bowl as OC for the Seahawks, Kubiak brings an offensive prowess to Las Vegas that is sorely needed after finishing last in the NFL in total scoring in 2025. Even with the brand new QB room, it may take a coaching masterclass to flip to script on offense. The Raiders WR receiving room is weak, headlined by TE Brock Bowers and former Vikings WR3 Jalen Nailer. The O-Line, apart from standout LT Kolton Miller and veteran C Tyler Linderbaum, is young and unproven. The silver lining for Mendoza is that he has the personnel around him that can help him to learn how to be an NFL. Cousins and Kubiack are both ideal mentors for a young rookie. The issue is that, at least for right now, Mendoza’s supporting cast won’t be making things especially easy. That may not even end up being an issue if Cousins plays the whole year and the front office has a chance to upgrade the talent at WR and O-line. What is important is that the Raiders have set Mendoza up with the most important thing a team can give a rookie QB: time. There is no rush to play immediately nor win immediately when he eventually does start. The Raiders are in a new era and have all the patience in the world to develop Mendoza the right way.

 

TY SIMPSON (Alabama) - 13th Overall, LA Rams

 

Grade: A+

 

Like Mendoza, Simpson is an NFL-ready QB. His understanding of the game allows him to make quick decisions and place the ball exactly where it needs to be. His timing and pro-level mechanics are what made him so successful at Alabama and why he was selected 13th overall. Also like Mendoza, Simpson will be afforded the luxury of not having to start right away. He will sit behind the reigning MVP Mathew Stafford for however much longer Stafford chooses to play. LA has all of the things that any young QB would want in a new team. Simpson has the chance to learn from, and eventually take over for, an aging future hall of fame QB in Mathew Stafford (38). He will get to play for one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game with Sean McVay, someone that is seen as one of the best coaches in the league, behind only Andy Reid. Simpson will also get to throw to one of the best WR duos in the league; Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. The Rams are less than five years removed from a Super Bowl victory and have never taken their foot off the gas. Having drafted lights out for the past few years (EDGE Jared Verse, DT Kobie Turner, WR Puka Nacua, LB Byron Young), the Rams have remained a contender despite the loss of so many integral pieces from the 2022 Super Bowl run (DT Aaron Donald, CB Jalen Ramsey, LB Von Miller). With this winning regime still in place, with all of its coaching and positional building blocks, Simpson is perfectly set up on a Jordan Love type path to success. This situation is any young quarterback’s dream.

 

CARSON BECK (Miami) - Rd 3, Pick 65, Arizona Cardinals

 

Grade: B-

 

Turning 24 in November, Beck is yet another QB that is heralded for his NFL readiness. Having started 43 games during his time at Georgia and Miami, Beck has developed pro-level processing and pocket awareness that make him such a high-level prospect. Winning two national titles at Georgia, Beck has proven that he can win at a high level. Now as an Arizona Cardinal, he will have the chance to prove that can win at the highest level. Like Mendoza, Beck has the advantage of coming into the league at the same time as the Cardinals new HC, former Rams OC Mike LaFleur. Without baggage from the Gannon regime, LaFleur and Beck have a chance to build a culture together and align with one another's development. First, Beck will have to beat out the veteran Jacoby Brissett. With Brissett serving in a bridge capacity and Beck holding a day two selection status, Beck getting a shot feels inevitable. Once he does, he will have the chance to throw to Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., two exciting young talents at the WR position. TE Trey McBride will likely be Beck’s best friend on the field, finishing with over a thousand yards in each of the past two seasons. The Cardinals still have a long way to go before contending, finishing with a bottom five defense in 2025. If the Cardinals are still in rebuild mode Beck will have a hard time establishing himself as a player who can last.

 

DREW ALLAR (Penn State) - Rd 3, Pick 76, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Grade: B+

 

At 6’5, 228 lbs, Allar possesses the prototypical size for an NFL quarterback. His size paired with his immense arm strength and ability to make any throw on the field compel scouts to compare him to Josh Allen. He is believed to be a boom/bust player with an upside similar to that of the 2024 MVP. Allar steps into a complicated QB room in Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers is yet to make his decision as to whether or not he will return to the Steelers in 2026. If he does he is likely to be the starter. The former OSU signal caller, Will Howard, has been receiving praise all offseason and seems to have gained newly hired HC Mike McCarthy's favor. Either way, it appears that Allar will be sitting on the bench for the foreseeable future. For a boom/bust player like Allar, this is the best case scenario. The longer he waits, the more he can learn and the greater chance he will have of becoming a Josh Allen rather than an Anthony Richardson. The Steelers are in a new era, one sure to be much less stable than the nineteen years of Mike Tomlin. In the middle of this uncertainty lies a lot of talent and promise (WR room consisting of DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, and rookie Germie Bernard). For a young and raw player like Allar, this chaos could provide him with the chance to make a name for himself.